Chapter 241: The Road to Colonization
The refugee crisis in the Balkans did not attract much attention from the outside world. Although many media outlets reported on it, it was largely glossed over.
“None of my business, I don’t care” is a universal attitude in any era. In this age, the Ottomans were not favorably viewed in the minds of Europeans.
They were almost seen as the epitome of barbarism, and as heretics, they were considered to have no rights.
Of course, people had other concerns — they couldn’t even feed themselves, so who had the energy to care about the fate of the Ottomans?
Franz was happy with the lack of external interest. The type of ‘snowflakes’ of later times, who often criticized without understanding the context, were still in their infancy and had no real voice.
Everyone’s attention was focused on Constantinople and the Crimean Peninsula. The Near East War had reached a point where the combatants were racing against time.
If the Russians captured Constantinople first, they would gain a strategic advantage, able to cut off the Bosporus Strait. This would leave Britain and France with no choice but to either compromise or continue a hard fight against them in the Balkans.
Conversely, if the British and French forces first captured the Crimean Peninsula, then they would hold the strategic advantage. They could then proceed to destroy the Russian shipbuilding industry in the Black Sea, making the battle for Constantinople unnecessary.
Don’t assume that just because the Russian Black Sea Fleet is defeated, Russia has no capability for a counterattack. In this era, the construction of sail-powered warships was not particularly difficult, and the Russian shipyards in the Sea of Azov had not ceased operations.
After suffering a setback, the Russians inspected and repaired their coastal artillery along the Black Sea. Even the inefficient bureaucrats of the Russian government knew that they couldn’t continue to be passively bombarded.
Important military ports had their coastal artillery redeployed. The British and French navies, not being foolish, naturally wouldn’t engage in a direct artillery duel with these shore batteries.
According to the plan made at St. Petersburg, as long as Constantinople was captured, the British and French fleets entering the Black Sea would be vulnerable, and slowly grinding down the enemy would be a viable strategy.
The Sevastopol Fortress began to crumble, and most of Constantinople had also fallen. The decisive moment that would determine the fate of both sides had arrived.
History had changed, and with Austria’s support, the Russians displayed enhanced combat effectiveness. Under the personal intervention of Nicholas I, who dismissed several logistics officers, the Russian forces in Crimea were finally successfully reequipped.
But logistics became even more challenging. The more advanced the modern weapons, the greater the logistical pressure, which posed a significant challenge to the Russians who relied on ox carts for transportation.
Vienna
Franz was looking at a map of Africa, understanding that colonies couldn’t be established haphazardly. Areas already claimed were off-limits, as Austria was not in a position to start major conflicts with established colonial empires.
Secondly, Franz had no interest in poor, resourceless areas with no potential for development. Colonization had to be cost-effective; a perpetually loss-making venture was unsustainable.
Lastly, he intended to avoid confrontation with the powerful natives, as a failed expedition would be a major embarrassment.
After eliminating these three factors, the choices were limited.
The Ottoman Empire territories, including Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt, were the nearest targets. However, after some consideration, Franz decisively crossed these options off the list.
The timing was wrong. The Ottomans were still allied with Britain and France, and acting rashly could provoke intervention by these powers, leaving Austria to inadvertently pave the way for them and gain nothing in return.
The most valuable coastal areas of South Africa were already in British hands. Algeria was firmly under French control, and Morocco was eyed by Britain, France, and Spain.
Franz reluctantly realized that all the desirable locations were already claimed by others. Morocco had not yet been divided, and Austria could try to get a piece of it, but this required choosing the right entry point.
In this era, any land not already under the gaze of the great powers hardly existed. Being watched was one thing; as long as it was not yet claimed, everyone had a chance to employ their means.
The list of alternatives quickly emerged: Guinea, C?te d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Benin, Togo, Gabon, Congo, Namibia, Kenya, Tanzania, Somalia, Zanzibar, Madagascar…
The inner lands were not under consideration, and areas beyond Africa were also not in the plan, as Franz seriously doubted the long-range capabilities of the Austrian navy.
Franz said, “Our plans cannot keep up with the changes. The refugee crisis in the Balkans is a problem, but it’s also an opportunity that we can’t afford to miss.
It is very difficult to migrate people from within the country to the African continent. Just look at the British and French; their people would rather go to the distant continent of America than the nearby Africa.
The quality of refugees from the Balkans may not be very high, but they are still better than the natives in some regards. With a population for the initial development of the colonies, our colonization plan must start earlier.
This is a map of Africa. These unmarked areas are unclaimed lands. Let’s think about it, where is the best place for us to start?”
At this time, mineral resources and the like are unknown, and European colonizers are not yet able to conduct explorations. Therefore, the current judgment method is very primitive.
They directly look at the level of development and the local wealth to determine if colonization can be profitable. The Austrian government also needs to consider an additional factor: whether the area is suitable for agriculture and if it can sustain these immigrants.
Prime Minister Felix analyzed, “Your Majesty, Guinea is worth considering. The coastal plains are easy to control, and the area has abundant water sources, making it suitable for developing agriculture and establishing an initial colonial foothold.
Geographically, it is also the closest. At present, there are not many competitors here. The French have only coaxed a few chiefs to sign treaties, so their influence in the area is insignificant.
Nigeria is also a good choice, with superior natural conditions and relatively high economic value. However, the local people are quite strong, and the British influence has penetrated deeply there.
Then there’s Congo. It has waterways that penetrate into the inner lands, making it easier to control. The region’s resources are also decent, and colonizing here should not result in a loss.
At this stage, these three places are the most suitable. We can’t guarantee a certain amount of profit, but at least within five years, these three places will allow us to break even.
With the immigrants from the Balkans, after about a decade of activity, a small market could be formed locally, which would also be of some benefit to the domestic industry.”
Other areas will be put on hold for the time being. Colonization must take costs into account, and of course, the most advantageous regions will be chosen.
Strategic position and future development aren’t on everyone’s mind right now. A colony that can make money now is better.
Future problems will be dealt with in the future. Everyone is a realist; a colony is not the mainland, so do not expect people to think too far ahead.
Colonization is also a long-term investment. Being able to quickly recoup costs and realize profits is the goal of colonizers.
Of course, there are also unprofitable colonies. For a country, the calculation of administrative costs and profits cannot be the only consideration.
If a colonial market can promote the development of domestic industry and commerce, or compensate for some resources lacking domestically, enduring a certain loss can be acceptable.
In this respect, the Germans in history serve as a negative example. They occupied a significant area of colonies but with limited development. By 1914, there were just over 20,000 German immigrants in Africa.
The German colonial operations were consistently unprofitable. The vast colonies did not contribute significantly to the development of domestic industry and commerce, with the colonial market contributing only 0.5% to foreign trade.
Naturally, Franz intended to learn from this lesson, starting with controlling the costs of colonization. The domestic management model was not applicable.
Metternich suggested, “Your Majesty, as we are just beginning overseas colonization, we can only afford success, not failure. Now is not the time for risks.
Let’s start with Guinea and the Congo regions. The competitors there are not strong. As long as we act quickly and create a fait accompli, that should suffice.”
Colonies differ from the mainland. The areas Austria is targeting are seen as having some value, but not of high value.
With the Near East War entering a critical moment, everyone’s attention is diverted, making it an opportune time to act.
In this era, establishing colonies in Africa entails both risks and opportunities. Britain and France are unlikely to go to war over two mediocre colonies.
Indeed, these are considered mediocre colonies. Britain and France already possess many areas suitable for agricultural production, and Austria’s current targets do not seem to have any specialties.
More importantly, there are no unified local powers of significant strength in these two regions. The once mighty Kingdom of the Congo has long been in decline, lacking the power to hinder Austria.
In contrast, Nigeria is not an easy target, at least it appears to have some strength. The ruling Fulani Empire, still capable of launching a holy war, is a testament to this.
Of course, this is not to say that Austria cannot conquer this territory. It’s a question of cost versus benefit. Regardless of the state of the Fulani Empire, it can’t change the fact that they are just an agrarian nation of a few million people.
The future most populous nation in Africa is still nowhere in sight. The entire African continent has a population of just over twenty million spread over thirty million square kilometers of land, a sparsely populated expanse to the point of hopelessness.
This is also why Metternich opposes rash action. Religious fervor is intense, and once ignited, it could prove quite challenging for Austria.
Additionally, the sparse population and religious fanaticisms could cause headaches. Although suic*de bomb**gs haven’t emerged yet, suic*de attacks already exist.
It was impractical for Austria to deploy hundreds of thousands of troops to maintain control over the colonies by eradicating these minor forces. Cost is the core of establishing a colonial empire. Without cost control, the collapse of the colonial empire is imminent.
Not hesitating for long, Franz made his decision: “Let’s start with these two areas as our first step in overseas colonization! The General Staff must immediately begin military planning. This operation will require coordination between the army and navy. We can’t afford any blunders, as it would be embarrassing for everyone involved.”
Marshal Radetzky replied, “Yes, Your Majesty!”
Franz’s words also carried a warning. The Balkan refugee crisis hasn’t been resolved yet, and while the General Staff’s responsibility hasn’t been pursued in favor of government stability, it doesn’t mean it won’t be addressed.
If this operation is successful, past mistakes could be forgiven; but if problems arise, even for Marshal Radetzky, there would be significant repercussions.
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